By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency

CLANTON –Friday, 230 pm, July 17, 2026

The latest forecast from the NHC now has the low pressure area developing in the eastern Gulf and moving very slowly northward over the next several days. There is now a 10% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours, and 30% chance during the next seven days.

The changes are due to models now indicating that the developing area of low pressure has a decent chance of remaining over the northern Gulf for the next several days. However, as shown in the NHC tropical weather outlook graphic above, there is still a chance (albeit smaller) that the system moves into Florida.

At this point, there is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall this weekend and into next week across the southern sections of the state. As stated in previous briefings, until an actual low pressure area develops, the track, future intensities, and impacts to Alabama will be highly uncertain.

Now is a good time to either develop or review your tropical storm/hurricane plan. You can find it here.