By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency
CLANTON – Saturday, 5:00 pm August 26, 2023
Tropical Depression 10 has formed and is forecast to become Tropical Storm Idalia Sunday, then a Category 1 Hurricane on Tuesday before making landfall somewhere between Destin and Sarasota Wednesday morning or afternoon.
There is much uncertainty in the exact track as noted by the cone of uncertainty below. It should be noted that the cone represents where the center of circulation may occur and 1/3 of the time the center ends up outside the cone. Specific impacts almost always occur both within and well outside the cone.
For areas south of I-85 and east of I-65:
The official NWS forecast as of 4 p.m. is for wind gusts from 15-30 mph beginning early Wednesday and continuing throughout the evening hours. There is between a 5-20% chance of sustained tropical storm-force winds with the earliest arrival time late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Total forecast rainfall from Sunday through Wednesday is 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. These forecasts will likely change as we get closer to landfall.
If you haven’t done so already, NOW is the time to prepare for the remainder of the season, as we are in the peak of tropical activity. A one-stop shopping for being prepared before, during and after a storm can be found at: National Hurricane Preparedness | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov)
The system moving into the Gulf will likely become a tropical depression sometime this weekend or early next week, then continue on a northward track. Until a center of circulation develops, models will continue to struggle with detailed track and intensity information.
As shown in the graphic below, the center of circulation will make landfall anywhere from east of Panama City to the western Florida Peninsula, most likely on Wednesday. Again, this could change, and you should keep up to date with the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov).
Again, the red-shaded area represents where the center of circulation is currently forecast. Actual impacts most often occur well outside these areas.
The current NWS forecast for the region south of I-85 and east of I-65 are wind gusts from 15-30 mph beginning early Wednesday and continuing throughout the evening hours. Total forecast rainfall from Sunday through Wednesday is 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
