Few Severe Storms Possible Through Tuesday And Eyes Focused On Gulf of Mexico

By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency  

CLANTON – Saturday, 8:30 am August 26, 2023

Although only a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop statewide today, a couple of storms could produce damaging wind gusts well north of I-20 this afternoon and evening.

A frontal boundary will move into the northern sections of the state on Sunday and stall somewhere across the central or southern sections through Tuesday.  As a result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop each day, mainly during the afternoon and lasting into the evening hours.

On Sunday, a few damaging wind gusts will be possible across the eastern half of the state, across much of the state on Monday, and possibly into Tuesday.

The system moving into the Gulf will likely become a tropical depression sometime this weekend or early next week, then continue on a northward track.  Until a center of circulation develops, models will continue to struggle with detailed track and intensity information.

As shown in the graphic below, the center of circulation will make landfall anywhere from east of Panama City to the western Florida Peninsula, most likely on Wednesday.  Again, this could change, and you should keep up to date with the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov). 

Again, the red shaded area represents where the center of circulation is currently forecast.  Actual impacts most often occur well outside these areas.

The current NWS forecast for the region south of I-85 and east of I-65 are wind gusts from 15-30 mph beginning early Wednesday and continuing throughout the evening hours.   Total forecast rainfall from Sunday through Wednesday is 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

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