Severe Weather Likely From Late Afternoon Into Early Monday Morning

By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency 

CLANTON – Monday 7:30 am, June 12, 2023 

A moist airmass, nearly stationary frontal boundary across central Alabama, and upper level disturbances moving across the Gulf Coast region will result in daily episodes of showers and thunderstorms into this weekend, with some severe weather and flooding potential each day.   

As you can see from the SPC outlook graphics from today through Wednesday, much of the state is in a severe weather threat.  However, one should look at these as potential areas for severe weather and flooding, not that the entire areas will actually see these threats materialize.  This is because there is still uncertainty in the exact track of the upper level systems each day. 

For today, confidence is high that the highest threat of damaging wind gusts and hail will across the southern portions of the state generally near and south of Hwy 80 – I-85 between 2 pm and 8 pm. 

On Tuesday, it currently appears the timing for severe weather will be between 7 am and 3 pm with another round possible between 10 pm and 4 am as clusters of storms moves from west to east across the state. 

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From Wednesday and into the weekend, timing is more uncertain but the damaging wind threat will generally be during the afternoon and evening hours.   

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There is growing concern of higher rainfall totals with widespread 2-6 inch amounts by Thursday evening and approaching 8 inches by Sunday evening.  In addition, the potential exists for localized higher amounts where storms repeatedly move across the same areas along the stalled frontal boundary.  This could produce flooding issues, especially mid to late week. 

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