By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency
CLANTON – Sunday, 7 am, June 11, 2023
There are two severe weather threats today:
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop anywhere across the state from 1 pm – 7 pm. A very unstable atmosphere would allow any stronger storm to quickly become severe, with damaging wind gusts and large hail. This would be more of an isolated threat and it is unclear if any thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours.
- Much higher confidence is in place for a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) to enter northern Alabama after 6 pm with a line or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, continuing southward into the early Monday morning hours.
This line could produce areas of straight-line winds up to 70 mph across the northern half of the state and large hail. In addition, a tornado or two is possible north of I-20.
The system this evening will leave a frontal boundary draped somewhere across the southern half of the state that will be the focus for a few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and hail Monday afternoon and evening. Both the threat and risk areas may change in later updates depending on the exact placement of the frontal boundary Monday morning.
Yet another round of severe weather is possible Tuesday morning into the afternoon with a MCS moving across the state.
From Wednesday through Saturday, a few strong to severe storms are possible each afternoon and evening due to an unstable atmosphere and surface heating. In addition, conditions are favorable for MCSs and more organized/coverage of storms to occur, moving from northwest to southeast across the Southeastern US. However, predictability is currently low on both timing and trajectory of any specific MCS beyond Tuesday.
Finally, statewide rainfall totals by next Sunday will generally be 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts. This could produce some flooding issues mid to late week.