By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency
CLANTON – Sunday, 3:15 pm, June 11, 2023
Through 6 pm, a couple of severe thunderstorms are possible east of I-65 and south of I-85 with damaging wind gusts and large hail. It appears that severe weather is unlikely across the rest of the state through late afternoon.
However, the primary threat of severe weather will be a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) entering northern Alabama after 5 pm with a line or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, continuing southward into the early Monday morning hours. An updated timing graphic is provided below.
This line could produce areas of straight-line winds up to 70 mph across the northern half of the state and large hail. In addition, a tornado or two are possible north of I-20, but confidence is very low on tornado formation. More than likely, a Severe Weather Watch will be issued for portions of the state later this afternoon or early this evening.
This MCS will leave a frontal boundary draped somewhere across the southern half of the state that will be the focus for a few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and hail Monday from 1 pm through 8 pm. Both the threat and risk areas may change in later updates depending on the exact placement of the frontal boundary Monday morning.
Yet another round of severe weather Tuesday morning into the afternoon with another MCS moving across the state.
From Wednesday through Saturday, a few strong to severe storms are possible each afternoon and evening due to an unstable atmosphere and surface heating. In addition, conditions are favorable for MCSs and more organized/coverage of storms to occur, moving from northwest to southeast across the Southeastern US. However, predictability is currently low on both timing and trajectory of any specific MCS beyond Tuesday.
Finally, statewide rainfall totals by next Sunday will generally be 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts. This could produce some flooding issues mid to late week.