By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency
CLANTON – Saturday, 6:30 am January 21, 2023
There is a “conditional” threat of severe weather from 11 pm tonight through 10 am tomorrow for the counties along the Alabama/Florida state line.
Rain in south Alabama this morning will spread northward across the entire state by this evening and continue into Sunday afternoon. Rain will end by Sunday evening. This evening, an upper level disturbance will produce additional showers and thunderstorms in south Alabama. Higher atmospheric instability, which aids in thunderstorm development, is forecast to be anywhere from just offshore in the Gulf of Mexico to farther inland over the southern sections of the state.
If the instability remains offshore, no severe weather will occur. However, “if” the instability can move inland, then a few severe storms with wind gusts to 60 mph and even a tornado or two are possible. This is why the severe threat is currently “conditional”.
A more significant system is forecast from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning across the state. Rain and thunderstorms will enter the western portions of Alabama between 6 pm Tuesday and 12 am Wednesday, move eastward and exit the eastern portions around 12 pm Wednesday.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has the southern half of the state in a risk area. Once again, the number and intensity of the severe storms will greatly depend on the amount of atmospheric instability that occurs. But, at least some severe weather is expected, including the potential for tornadoes. Stay tuned for this developing event.