By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency
CLANTON – Tuesday, 6:00 am November 29, 2022
Several waves of thunderstorms are forecast to move across the state this afternoon and evening, followed by a line of storms late tonight into Wednesday morning.
During the afternoon hours, clusters of thunderstorms will move from west to east across Alabama. The highest threat of severe storms will be west of I-65. West of I-65 and north of Hwy 80, large hail to golf ball size and damaging straight-line wind gusts are possible. West of I-65 and south of Hwy 80, the air will be more unstable and supercells with potential tornadoes are possible.
After 9 pm, additional clusters of thunderstorms will enter the western portions of the state and eventually form into a solid line as it moves southeastward late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. It is these storms across the western half of the state where the greatest severe weather threat including tornadoes will occur. A couple of tornadoes could be at least EF2 intensity and straight-line winds could gust over 70 mph, especially near the Mississippi/Alabama state line.
Although the graphic above shows the timing for the entire event, the SPC outlook is only valid until 6 am Wednesday. Note in the second graphic that a Marginal Risk is in effect for the far southeastern portions of the state. Although the line of storms is forecast to weaken east of I-65, a few instances of damaging straight-line winds and a couple of tornadoes are still possible.
Valid after 6 am Wednesday
Finally, widespread 1-3 inches of rain is forecast with this system, with some spots reaching 2-5 inches, especially in southwest AL. As a result, a Flood Watch is in effect from 12 pm until 6 am Wednesday for this area of the state.
Remember, severe weather, including tornadoes, does occur in Marginal Risk areas. In addition, the greatest threat of tornadoes for this event will occur at night. Make sure you have at least two methods to wake you up in case a warning is issued which does NOT include an outdoor siren. Also, make sure your Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) notification is turned on. This can be found in the settings section on your cell phone.
If a warning is issued, get to the lowest floor possible and put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. Interior bathrooms, basements, and safe rooms offer the best protection.
Many severe weather injuries and deaths occur due to blunt force trauma to the head. Wear a sturdy helmet (baseball, softball, football, biking, construction, etc.) for protection.