Eyes on Northern Gulf For Possible Tropical Development

By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency

CLANTON –Monday, 8 am July 11, 2022

There is a 30% chance of tropical formation from Wednesday through Friday.  As of this morning, a trough of low pressure is developing over the northern Gulf of Mexico just offshore of the Florida Panhandle, where surface pressures have begun to fall over the past 24 hours.  Gradual development is possible.

At this point, development later this week will depend upon if a low pressure center can form.  If this is close to or over land, tropical development will be less likely.  However, if over open water, development will be more likely.  Weather models are very inconsistent right now concerning potential development. 

Unfortunately, upper-level steering currents will remain very weak, so movement through at least Sunday will be slow.  At a minimum, widespread rain across southern Alabama through Saturday will produce 2-6 inches of total rainfall, with some spots potentially receiving much more, especially near the coast.  Thus, the flooding potential will also be on the increase by mid-week. 

For those near the coast, if you haven’t already, now is the time to develop or review your tropical action plan.  Go to https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes and https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness 

Keep up to date with the latest forecasts from a trusted source.  These types of systems can intensify rapidly, and since this one is so close to the coast, there could be little time to prepare before rapidly deteriorating conditions occur. 

Finally, a frontal boundary will move from north to south across Alabama on Wednesday.  Clusters or a line of storms, similar to this past weekend, is expected with a few wind gusts of 40-60 mph across the northern half of the state. 

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