Potential Severe Weather Late Tonight into Saturday

By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency

CLANTON – 3:30 pm November 30, 2018

Severe weather is possible across all of Alabama on Saturday, especially near and south of I-20. This includes the potential for supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes. The graphic above shows the timing of when severe weather is anticipated.

As with many late fall/early winter events, this is still not a clear-cut scenario. A band of convection near the coast early Saturday morning will move northeastward. Widespread rain/thunderstorms will also be occurring north of a Demopolis – Montgomery – Auburn line, but these are not anticipated as being severe.

Another band of thunderstorms could develop during the late morning into late afternoon and move across Alabama, with these storms potentially becoming severe.

Negative factors for a widespread severe event include morning convection disrupting afternoon thunderstorm formation, and afternoon upper level features beginning to move out of the area. However, there is still the possibility that this could change, which would lead to both a higher threat area and lasting well into the afternoon.

Listen for updates this evening and early Saturday and be prepared to receive both severe weather watches and warnings if they are issued.

Finally, this system will produce around one inch of total rainfall over the northern 2/3 of the state, 1-3 inches over the southern 1/3, with higher amounts in stronger thunderstorms. This may lead to localized flash flooding, and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Alabama.2

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s