By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency
CLANTON –7:00 am October 7, 2018
Tropical Depression Fourteen will become Tropical Storm Michael today and likely a hurricane early Wednesday. Landfall is forecast Wednesday afternoon or evening, but there are still model differences and a slight westward shift is not out of the question at this point. Thus, the western cone of uncertainty extends to Biloxi.
Some key points to remember: 1) The cone represents where the area where center of storm may be, and 1/3 of the time the center ends up outside the cone. 2) Actual impacts (high winds, flooding rain, storm surge, tornadoes) often occur well outside the forecast cone. 3) High winds typically occur well before landfall of the center. That’s why impacts across south Alabama could begin by noon on Tuesday as shown in the graphic above.
Life threatening Rip Currents will occur through at least Wednesday and it is important to heed the advice of local beach patrols and flag warning systems.
Now is the time to look at your action plan and if need be, have all activities completed no later than 12 pm Tuesday. For more information on an action plan, go to: https://www.ready.gov/hurricane-toolkit