Updated Hurricane Forecast

By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency

CLANTON – Thursday, August 9, 2018

NOAA just updated their predictions for the rest of the hurricane season, which runs through November 30th.
Today’s update has a lower total number of storms than the May 2018 forecast, but there some key points to remember about these predictions.

First, don’t focus on the numbers. It only takes one hurricane to change your life forever. Second, these forecasts do not indicate where the storms will form, or where landfall will occur. Finally, we are now entering the most active part of the season. In looking at graph below, you will see the climatological peak is the second week of September.


I’ve included the historic prevailing tracks of tropical systems from August – October. As you can see, Alabama is susceptible to tropical storms and hurricanes any of these months.

So, the bottom line is not to let your guard down with the latest forecast, even if you live far inland. Flash floods and high winds, including destructive tornadoes, can occur anywhere in Alabama with tropical systems. Please check out this link to help you remain prepared. https://www.ready.gov/hurricane-toolkit

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