CLANTON – 5 pm May 26, 2018. There is some changes from this morning’s forecast, which has shifted Alberto slightly eastward. The latest forecast cone is shown above. Once again, the cone represents where the center of the storm will likely be located. Actual impacts will occur well outside the cone.
There is still not a great fix this afternoon on the exact center of the system, which can lead to future forecast errors. In addition, NHC’s average forecast error greater than 48 hours is roughly 80 miles. So, there are still a lot of changes that could occur in the next two days. Stay tuned.
Landfall is still forecast Monday afternoon or evening. A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch continues for the entire AL coast. This means that sustained winds between 40-60 mph will occur along the coast ahead of landfall Sunday night or early Monday morning.
Widespread 3-6 inches of rain across the state will fall Sunday through Thursday, with 6-10 inches closer to the coast. There may be some areas that receive over 10 inches which would produce dangerous flash flooding. Total rainfall amounts will depend on the ultimate track and speed of the system after landfall and expect these amounts to change with future forecast updates. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for southwest AL, and additional Flash Flood Watches will be extended both eastward and northward during the weekend or early Monday.
Storm surge of 2-4 feet above ground level is expected this evening through Tuesday, with potential higher amounts Sunday night into Monday night. Surf heights of 5-9 feet, potentially reaching up to 12 feet, will occur this evening through Tuesday resulting in pounding waves and beach erosion. The heaviest rain bands and associated tornado threat will start near the coast on Sunday, move inland Sunday evening and continue into Wednesday.
For the latest forecast, watch and warning information from the National Weather Service, go to https://www.weather.gov In the upper left hand of the page, put in the desired location, and the information will automatically be provided the office that serves that area.