By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency
CLANTON – As of Tuesday morning, October 3rd, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of a system forming near the Yucatan/southern Gulf of Mexico to 30% during the next five days. You may also begin to see some media showing various computer models, with one currently indicating a direct impact to Alabama on October 8-9.
However, confidence is low right now that a named storm will even develop. Also, once we get into October, there are a lot more high pressure and low pressure systems moving across the US from day to day due to the jet stream, or upper level steering currents, beginning to move southward. This has a high impact of exact landfall location of a gulf system, and there will likely be changes reflected in the computer models over the next few days.
Finally, at this time, the system with the “X” over southern Florida is not expected to develop into a storm.